Chile’s H1 white meat exports and global forecast for 2022 year-end

According to figures from Chilean Customs, chicken exports grew 52% in value during the first half of the year when compared to the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, although pork is still the main exported product in the sector, with 292 million USD, it fell when compared to 2021. 

Figures from Chilean Customs from January to June 2022 show that chicken exports reached 101 thousand ton cwe, with a 13% increase from the same period in 2021. The value of exports reached 272 million USD, a 52% increase when compared to the previous year.

The turkey industry has exported 14 thousand ton cwe in 2022, an 18% increase from 2021. The value of turkey exports reached 63 million USD, a considerable increase compared to the same period in 2021. The United States, Mexico, and China were the primary destination markets during the first half of the year for both Chilean chicken and turkey, with a total of 300 million USD.

In turn, pork exports dropped because of major global factors that had a direct or indirect impact on production costs, stability, and the outlook for both the Chilean and global pork industries. As recorded by Chilean Customs, the pork industry exported 193 thousand ton cwe, showing a 17% reduction in volume compared to 2021, and a value above 290 million USD, which represents a 37% reduction when compared to 2021. China, South Korea, and Japan remain the primary destination markets for this Chilean protein, which represents 76% of the total value of exports.

Rabobank and USDA outlooks

According to estimates released by Rabobank and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global pork exports are experiencing a 14% drop. There is a hike in prices all over the world triggered by numerous causes: in the United States, the record prices due to lower production are helping offset the rise in costs; and producers remain profitable on pork market strength and lower feed costs. In Europe, prices go up as supply tightens and production drops 2%, as is the case in Brazil. However, Europe has diversified its exports as volumes to China remain low. In China, prices will continue to rise but imports will decline, while production grows almost 2% in 2022. In Japan, high prices are slowing domestic pork consumption, but imports continue to grow and production remains stable. Southeast Asia is experiencing favorable changes to import policies, while Covid and ASF are impacting the markets.

Additionally, although feed supply prices have gone down in some markets, Rabobank expects them to stay relatively strong for the rest of 2022. It is said this will decrease pressure on producers to some extent. However, price volatility in grains and oilseeds will bring extra management risks and challenges.

Regarding global chicken exports, both institutions expect a 1% growth in the remainder of the year, driven by high prices all over the globe, with an increase in exports from North and South America to China but a decline in exports from Europe due to the Avian influenza that continues to impact the volume of exports. In China, demand will continue to be impacted by Covid-related restrictions. Chinese imports are expected to drop 10% and exports to grow 27%. Demand from countries like Japan and Thailand will continue to grow, with higher prices, especially of chicken breast in Japan.

In talking about the current and potential scenarios, Juan Carlos Domínguez, President of ChileCarne, says: “In the white meat industry, we know we have to adapt to constant global changes and we try to develop strategies and partnerships to strengthen each of our products’ position in the main markets. We maintain our positive outlook after seeing poultry export figures for the first half of 2022, and we are working hard to help pork recover export results soon, while navigating the adverse global trade, political, and health conditions as best we can.”

Reference Rabobank’s complete outlook at: https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/animal-protein/pork-quarterly-q3-2022.html