The global pork market will face a year of production adjustments in 2026, with an estimated drop in output towards the second half of the year. This comes amid persistent health challenges, changes in trade policies, and a growing focus on productivity and efficiency. This is according to the Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2026 Report from Rabobank, which forecasts a period of transition for the industry.
According to the report, global production will show mixed results. While the first half of the year will still reflect high supply levels in the main producing countries, the second half of the year will see a decline, driven mainly by the reduction in the sow herd in China and adjustments in Europe. In China’s case, the breeding sow herd is projected to decline to 39 million head in 2026 as part of a strategy to rebalance supply and demand following a period of overproduction. In the United States and the European Union, growth in the sow herd will remain limited by health restrictions, high expansion costs, and greater commercial uncertainty. Productivity improvements—supported by technological advances and automation—are expected to be the main driver of growth.
International trade will remain in flux in 2026. China, which accounted for 45% of global imports in 2020, has significantly reduced this share thanks to the recovery of its domestic production, while Mexico has emerged as the largest global importer. The anti-dumping duties imposed by China on European pork and Mexico’s introduction of quotas to suppliers without free trade agreements add uncertainty and could redirect flows to new destinations. This is compounded by the persistent effects of African swine fever in Asia and Europe, which continue to hinder production recovery and generate trade restrictions in some markets.
When it comes to demand, Rabobank expects global consumption to hold steady, thanks to pork remaining a cheaper option than other proteins, especially in comparison with high beef prices. However, growth will be moderate and uneven across regions depending on economic performance and consumer confidence. This scenario will require greater productive discipline and strategic risk management to maintain international competitiveness.